Polling Averages

This page is all about opinion polling for Australian federal politics.

It aggregates and averages all federal opinion polls asking primary voting intention to generate a two-party preferred result.

This averager includes all published polls that include a voting intention question. If I’ve missed a poll, please contact me.

Latest Polling Average

Updated 28  July
 
TPP 28 Jul
Swing
Seat +/-
TPP 15 Jul
TPP 8 Jul
TPP 30 Jun
TPP 18 Jun
TPP 2 Jun
TPP 27 May
TPP 20 May
LNP46.51%-6.98%-3246.03%46.58%46.22%45.88%46.22%46.53%46.76%
Labor53.49%+6.98%+3253.97%53.42%53.78%54.12%53.78%53.47%53.24%

The average of the polls shows a two-party-preferred -6.98% swing against the Coalition, which equates to a -32 seat change from the 2013 election result. This is a change in the average TPP since the average of the polls in June which was -7.61% (and -36 seats) away from the Coalition. The addition of the most recent Galaxy and Morgan polls sees a slight improvement for the Coalition’s TPP due to the skew caused by the Morgan sample-size and omission of PUP, but ultimately reflects a continued and substantial collapse in the Coalition’s TPP vote since the election.

Two-party preferred vote - 28 July 2014

 

A majority of 76 seats is needed to form government. On the current polling, it is projected that Labor would have 87 seats (currently 55), and the Coalition 58 (currently 90).

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LNP
ALP
Greens
Palmer
Other
Pub
Size
Weighted38.0%38.4%10.5%4.2%8.9%Weighted 21,365
28/7/201438.0%39.0%10.5%12.5%Morgan 3,296
27/7/201439.0%37.0%11.0%7.0%6.0%Galaxy 1,400
22/7/201439.0%39.0%9.0%6.0%7.0%Essential 1,965
21/7/201440.5%37.1%10.3%8.2%3.9%ReachTel 3,431
19/7/201439.0%40.0%12.0%5.0%4.0%Nielsen 1,400
15/7/201438.0%40.0%9.0%6.0%7.0%Essential 1,818
14/7/201436.0%37.0%11.0%16.0%Newspoll 1,207
13/7/201434.0%38.5%11.5%16.0%Morgan 3,955
08/7/201439.0%40.0%9.0%6.0%6.0%Essential 1,804
01/7/201435.0%37.0%13.0%15.0%Newspoll 1,161
01/7/201440.0%38.0%9.0%6.0%7.0%Essential 1,835
29/6/201435.0%36.5%12.0%7.0%9.5%Morgan 2,797
26/6/201439.5%38.7%10.3%6.8%4.7%ReachTel 3,376
24/6/201440.0%38.0%9.0%5.0%7.0%Essential 1,817
22/6/201439.0%37.0%13.0%5.0%6.0%Nielsen 1,400
17/6/201437.0%37.0%10.0%17.0%Newspoll 1,155
17/6/201439.0%41.0%9.0%5.0%7.0%Essential 1,828
16/6/201436.5%38.0%12.0%5.5%8.0%Morgan 3,068
11/6/201437.0%40.0%9.0%6.0%8.0%Essential 1,916
03/6/201436.0%37.0%12.0%15.0%Newspoll 1,158
02/6/201435.0%38.0%11.0%7.5%8.5%Morgan 3,247
27/5/201440.0%39.0%9.0%5.0%7.0%Essential 1,895
19/5/201440.0%40.0%8.0%5.0%7.0%Essential1,855
19/5/201436.0%38.0%11.0%15.0%Newspoll 1,157

The most recent poll added to the Polling Average is the Galaxy and Morgan polls on 28 July.

Primary vote - 28 July 2014 - AlexWhite.org

 

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About this poll averager

Notes:

State polling: This poll averager does not consider state-level polls that ask federal voting intention, or seat-level polls. It only averages national-level opinion polls.

Newspoll: Unfortunately, Newspoll does not separately ask about the Palmer United Party in its primary vote questions. As a result, this impacts the two-party preferred result due to preference flows. E.g. PUP preferences went 53.6% to the ALP, compared to “Other” which was 50.2%. This means Newspoll slightly favours the Coalition in its results.

Morgan Poll: Morgan poll has an odd effect that slightly skews results in favour of the LNP. This is for two reasons. Firstly, like Newspoll, Morgan does not seem to ask about voting intention for the Palmer United Party; PUP is included in “Other” and thus this advantages the LNP. Secondly, Morgan has a large sample size (over 3000) which appears to be due to adding two weeks of polls (e.g. 19/20 Jul and 26/27 Jul). Because there’s no way to disaggregate these result, I have taken the large sample size at face value.

Greens, Independents & Palmer: For the purposes of seat level swings and allocation, this polling averager assumes that the Greens party retains Melbourne, Katter retains Kennedy, Wilkie retains Denison, McGowan retains Indi, and Palmer retains Fairfax.

Preference distribution: This averager uses preference flows from the 2013 election.

Primary vote sample sizes: The primary vote table shows the (known) sample size for recent polls. Where no sample size is known, I have used the sample size for the immediate preceding poll for that publisher.

About poll averaging

The poll results that are averaged are weighted based on sample size and recency. This means that a poll of 3000 people is weighted more than a poll of 800 people; it also means that a poll released yesterday is weighted more than a poll released three weeks ago. A poll that is over a month old has a 0% weighting.

Averaging polls is generally regarded as more accurate than individual polls. This is because it smooths out the individual variation that can occur with rogue polls. Additionally, because averaging many polls aggregates samples, the final two-party preferred average has a lower margin of error than a single poll.

Because pollsters ask voting intention questions differently (amongst other reasons), this poll averager is not scientific. For everyday use however, it should provide a much better picture of public opinion than a single poll.

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