There is a lot of talk all over the place about Rudd going to an early double-dissolution election. Many otherwise well informed people I’ve met (engineers, accountants, academics, and so on) believe that a double-dissolution is both likely, easy and in Labor’s favour – even Larvatus Prodeo goes on about it.

Antony Green has categorical refutation of the notion that Labor has an interest in going to a double dissolution election. His psephological view is that Labor will simply go to a normal (half-senate) election.

This is for the simple reason that under a double-dissolution, the quota for the Senate is halved, making it far easier for the Greens Party and independents to get elected, and harder for Labor (and the Libs).